Methodology & sources
Every assumption in this study, where it came from, and how confident you should be in it.
All inputs live in a single file: assets/js/data.js. Edit a value there — an FOB price, a freight rate, a target retail price, a conversion rate — and every chart, table and figure across all sixteen pages recalculates. Nothing is hard-coded into the pages. The file is commented section by section.
Confidence levels
Not all figures here are equal. Three tiers, and they are marked honestly:
Verified
Published, citable and checked against a primary or near-primary source: duty rates, VAT rates, market size, project awards, conformity regimes, and retail prices taken from live catalogues.
Benchmarked
Derived from published ranges and industry norms: FOB factory prices, freight rates, container yields, handling and breakage allowances. Accurate to within roughly ±20%.
Modelled
Reasoned estimates that must be validated before capital is committed: Kuwaiti retail prices, payment mix, conversion rates, acquisition cost, market share splits outside Saudi Arabia.
Landed cost method
Landed cost is built the same way for every country and both routes, so the numbers are strictly comparable:
| 1. FOB | Factory price per m², free on board at origin port |
| 2. Freight | 40HQ container cost ÷ 1,400 m² yield |
| 3. Insurance | 0.3% of goods plus freight |
| 4. CIF | Sum of the above — the value duty is assessed on |
| 5. Customs | 5% of CIF — the GCC common external tariff |
| 6. Anti-dumping | 23.5% of CIF for Chinese origin; zero for Spanish origin |
| 7. Port & clearance | Per-country, includes conformity cost amortised per m² |
| 8. Inland haulage | Port to warehouse, per country |
| 9. Warehousing | Storage and handling per m², per country |
| 10. Breakage | 4% applied to the accumulated cost |
| Landed cost | Delivered into local warehouse, duty paid, ready to sell |
VAT is excluded throughout. It is collected from the customer and remitted, so it does not affect margin — but it is noted per market because it affects the displayed price. All retail benchmarks and target prices in this study are stated on the same VAT-exclusive basis on both sides of every comparison.
Market sizing method
- Regional market: published GCC figures — USD 10.29bn (2024) rising to USD 15.74bn (2030), 7.3% CAGR. Intervening years interpolated at that rate.
- Country split: Saudi Arabia's 36.5% share is published. The remaining shares are apportioned across the GCC using relative construction activity, population and import dependency, and are estimates.
- Residential share: 60% of market value, consistent with the published residential growth premium.
- Retail, non-project share: 35% of residential — tile bought by an end customer rather than specified into a contract.
- Online share: 11–15% by market, reflecting local e-commerce maturity in considered-purchase home categories.
The result — roughly USD 317m a year across the five markets — is deliberately conservative. It is the demand this business actually competes for, not the headline market.
Entry-score weights
Key modelling assumptions
Known limitations
- Kuwaiti retail prices are modelled, not observed. Kuwait publishes far less online price data than its neighbours. Validate with a physical Shuwaikh price survey before committing.
- Country market shares outside Saudi Arabia are apportioned, not published. The Saudi figure is sourced; the rest are estimates.
- Payment mix percentages are modelled from regional e-commerce patterns, not from category-specific transaction data.
- Conversion rates and acquisition costs have no local precedent — no comparable design-led online tile retailer exists in these markets to benchmark against. This is precisely why Phase 0 exists.
- FOB prices vary widely by format, finish, rectification and factory tier. A single modelled figure per route is a planning tool, not a quotation.
- Freight is a snapshot. Ocean rates move fast; the operations chapter includes a shock scenario for this reason.
- No competitor financials were available. Competitive scoring is qualitative, based on public positioning and catalogue observation.
Currency
Four of the five currencies are pegged to the US dollar, which removes almost all FX risk from this plan. The Kuwaiti dinar tracks an undisclosed basket and moves within a narrow band. The only material currency exposure in the business is euro-denominated purchasing on the Spain route, which is addressed in that chapter.
Sources
Scope and status
This is a commercial feasibility study prepared from desk research and modelling. It is not investment advice, legal advice or tax advice. Duty rates, conformity requirements and tax rules change, and the anti-dumping measure central to this analysis is subject to periodic review. Verify current rates with a licensed customs broker in the target market, and take local legal advice on entity structure and foreign ownership before committing capital.
Qatar is excluded from scope at the client's direction. It represents roughly 11% of the regional market and the same anti-dumping measure applies there.